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The new offer will see teachers getting a 12.3% increase by April 2023 and it will rise to 14% by 2024. Support for Scottish independence nudged up to 50% for the first time in 2019, soon after Boris Johnson became prime minister. This includes a majority of those who agree the people should be freely able to express their transgender identity. In this scenario, how would you vote in a General Election? READ MORE: Scottish NHS staff reject latest pay offer and threaten 'unprecedented' strike action. Published by Statista Research Department , Feb 15, 2023. The latest opinion polling from outlet YouGov shows respondents relatively downbeat on the state of the US economy over the next six months, anticipating that inflation will rise, there will be further interest rate hikes, and gas prices will increase. However, there was even worse news for the SNP in the other new poll released by Redfield and Wilton Strategies on Thursday night and conducted on November 2-3. Opinion polling on Scottish independence is continually being carried out by various organisations to gauge public attitudes to independence. The YouGov poll of voting intention conducted over Wednesday and Thursday showed 54% support for Labour and 21% for the Conservatives. Another. About; Social . The Japanese midfielder was handed the February Player of the Month award. Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means 'I completely oppose Scotland becoming an independent country' and 10 means 'I completely support Scotland becoming an independent country' what number would you consider yourself to be?". It was one of the biggest news stories of our. A YouGov poll published this morning (2 March) makes encouraging reading for the Prime Minister. Please check you have typed it correctly. US ; About ; For business ; . Britain Elects deals in poll aggregation alongside analysis of upcoming elections and the state of British public opinion. As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. and given the options of "For Scotland to become an independent country" and "For Scotland to remain as part of the United Kingdom", which have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively. Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "In a referendum on independence for Scotland held tomorrow, how would you vote?" View our Privacy PolicyandTerms & Conditions, TheLondonEconomic.com Open, accessible and accountable news, sport, culture and lifestyle. This once again reaffirms how sleaze and scandal remain the most potent political weapons in British politics, ones which can quickly and easily cut through to voters. At the heart of our company is a global online community, where millions of people and thousands of political, cultural and commercial organizations engage in a continuous conversation about their beliefs, behaviours and brands. Indeed by the time that the Scot, Gordon Brown, became prime minister in 2007, support for Scottish independence had fallen back to 24%, its lowest level for over two decades. By the second half of 2020, in November 2020, the Yes campaign reached a record level of 56% in the polls. Polling conducted before the 2014 Scottish independence referendum can be found here. This lead was trending at around 8% at the point that Liz Truss became prime minister in September 2022. Speaking on BBC Scotland's Good Morning Scotland programme, Nicola Sturgeon said her aim at May's Holyrood election was winning a . The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous Scottish Parliament election, held . Latest YouGov poll suggests many voters in Scotland have dismissed warnings about the economic impacts of a yes vote YouGov's opinion poll for the Sunday Times suggests the yes. First Minister of Scotland: Runners and Riders. The rank outsider to become First Minister has only received the public backing of one serving politician, Joanna Cherry, amid struggles to get her campaign going. Humza Yousaf takes the lead as SNP members swing behind Nicola Sturgeon's man, The 'worst health secretary in the history of devolution' is just ahead of his rivals in the SNP leadership contest, although a third of Nat members still don't know who to vote for, Ian Blackford 'looking forward' to end of police probe into SNP's 'murky' finances as he dodges Peter Murrell question. Founded by Ben Walker and Lily Jayne Summers. Subscribe to our email alert of the day's top stories from the UK and around the world. * Prediction from Electoral Calculus using the figures from the latest YouGov opinion poll. In results published for the survey taken March 24-25, 2022 . This is the same constant level of dont knows that has been seen in most polls over the last 5 years. Rather than drop back after IndyRef1, and with the SNP remaining in government in Edinburgh under new first minister Nicola Sturgeon, support for Scottish independence continued to rise. With the Russian invasion of Ukraine heavily dominating the UK news agenda, the position of the UKs political parties became somewhat becalmed during the spring on 2022 with no notable movements in the polls. 4th October 2022| Holy oil prepared to anoint King Charles III during coronation during ceremony in Jerusalem. 48 hour snow warning for Scotland as Met Office predicts an icy start to spring, Don't put your winter woollies away yet! As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.2 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. In response to the Redfield and Wilton poll, Scots Labour peer Lord Foulkes tweeted: "SNP on the slide. Britain Elects. Combining deep sector expertise with local knowledge to provide you with a deep understanding of your industry. Separate from the question of how Scots might vote in a hypothetical second referendum is the question of whether there should be a second referendum. Data collected from extensive surveys and snap polls about or relating to Scottish independence. That lead then jumped to a staggering 24% in the three weeks after former chancellor Kwarsi Kwartengs mini budget and prior to Liz Truss resignation. A YouGov poll shows 56% of Scots support the . Scottish election 2021: Polling expert says SNP majority 'on a knife-edge' Small movements in the polls between now and May 6 could make an "important difference to the outcome", according to . Charles and Camilla break silence after Frogxit fall out with business-as-usual engagements, The Palace has not yet commented on the move to remove Prince Harry and Meghan from Frogmore - instead sending out a release about forthcoming official engagements, No prominent backers appear for Ash Regan despite claims endorsements would arrive this week. By clicking 'Sign in and Subscribe' you agree to us subscribing you to our newsletter in accordance with our Privacy Policy and Legal Notice.Emails, which may be sent daily or less frequently, may include marketing elements. If you can, please show your appreciation for our free content by donating whatever you think is fair to help keep TLE growing and support real, independent, investigative journalism. Or by navigating to the user icon in the top right. Please click 'Sign in and Subscribe' to continue. Ron DeSantis now leads former President Donald Trump by 5 percentage points in the race for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination. In the early part of 2023, Labour had started to increase its polling lead again and was once again approaching 50% in the polls. Indeed between October 2020 and January 2021, the two major parties were running neck and neck. ((__lxGc__=window.__lxGc__||{'s':{},'b':0})['s']['_222513']=__lxGc__['s']['_222513']||{'b':{}})['b']['_680898']={'i':__lxGc__.b++}; Never miss the day's key interactions and exchanges in parliament. A poll of more than 1,000 people . The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2014 Scottish independence referendum to the present day. The Boundary Commission is currently in the midst of a review designed to better equalise constituency sizes. Click here to sign-in and subscribe via a link sent to your email. Big names to go would include Joanna Cherry and Mhairi Black. The latest YouGov/Times voting intention poll, conducted a fortnight after Rishi Sunak became prime minister, shows Labour maintaining a significant lead over the Conservatives. The latest voting intention survey puts Labour a whopping 28 points ahead of the Tories, with Rishi Sunaks party flirting with sub-20 numbers in what would be a historic low. conducted. Stay informed. The majority of people believe that a doctors approval should be needed for a person to change their sex in law. The YouGov survey for the Sunday Times of 1,088 Scottish voters shows support for the party dropped from 50% to 44% in the Holyrood constituency vote and from 40% to 36% in the regional list,. We will not share your email address with any third parties. , in which Scotland voted to remain in the EU. Labour would be nipping at their heels with 22 Scottish MPs, up from just one currently. Don't miss out! Scots cop claims World's End serial killer committed 'three more murders in Glasgow ', Retired detective Allan Jones claims Sinclair should have been tried for the murders Anna Kenny, Hilda McAuley and Agnes Cooney, Eddie Howe makes damning Ryan Fraser Newcastle admission as Scotland star's 'commitment' questioned. A new poll published by YouGov Tuesday shows that Sunak would lose to any of his three remaining rivals among Tory members in a final two-way round of votes. Latest opinion polls news, commentary and analysis, including political and voting intention polls, by polling companies including YouGov, Ipsos MORI and Survation. All Rights Reserved. Polling of British voters on whether the United Kingdom should rejoin the European Union. Prince Harry's popularity in the UK has decreased by 35 percentage points over the past four years, a new survey by IPSOS has found. As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. Analysis pieces written by YouGovs data journalists based on data collected about or relating to Voting Intention. Further details of the latest voting intentions in relation to a Scottish independence referendum can be seen in the most recent individual polls: Techne (February 23) which placed the Yes side on 45.3% and the No side on 54.7%, post adjusting for undecided voters. Although it is only a relatively small Scottish sample (148 people out of 1702 polled in total across the UK), the results would see 23 Nats lose their seats to leave them with 25 MPs. Former prime minister Boris Johnson, net zero secretary Grant Shapps, and transport secretary Mark Harper, are amongst some of the leading political figures who would lose their seats to Labour. In Wales, Plaid Cymru is currently on course to lose one seat to Labour. Topic . Keir Starmer has finally found his Clause IV moment. Labour has surged to its largest poll lead over the Conservatives in more than two decades, with voters turning against Kwasi Kwarteng's tax-cutting budget. Ben Walker is a senior data journalist at the New Statesman and writes extensively about elections and UK public opinion. Last updated Nov 16, 2022 View all Trackers (4) Support for creation of a new English Parliament along the lines of the existing Scottish Parliament politics Surveys Data collected from extensive surveys and snap polls about or relating to Scottish independence. Scottish Opinion Polls Recent Scottish opinion polls. Which party will you vote for? In the first three weeks of her premiership, the Labour lead over the Conservatives extended to 11%. At 64 per cent, those respondents most likely to lean towards voting Green at the next election were also most likely to say that they support the GRR bill and that the UK Governments veto was wrong. We are sorry, but the email address you entered does not appear to be valid. In the case of Northern Ireland, with its own political parties, Politics.co.uk has drawn on the LucidTalk opinion poll of 3 February. The headline data used in calculating these averages has been drawn from that laid out in the published polls of a number of leading firms: YouGov, Opinium, Survation, SavantaComRes, Redfield and Wilton, Techne, Delta Poll,and Ipsos Mori. Indeed Conservative support appeared to have grown slightly after Rishi Sunaks October 2021 budget. In early November 2021, the furore over the resignation of the Conservative MP Owen Patterson saw the trend Conservative vote share fall by a further 3%. We haven't published any articles, trackers or survey results about Scottish independence. CalMac warns of further disruption to ferry service due to lack of backup ferries, The ferry operator is facing frequent issues as it has to constantly repair the aging fleet which is blighted with problems due to the lack of back ups, Scottish lags misuse 4.1million taxpayer-funded mobile phones more than 7,000 times in three years, More than 4,082 inmates have been caught out for using mobile phones paid for by the taxpayers to commit crimes while in prison, Iconic Glasgow bakery Mortons Rolls 'ceases all trading' after 58 years. Access the latest polls, survey results and articles . That's according to a new YouGov poll commissioned by WalesOnline to mark St David's Day 2023. . The latest YouGov panel has shown a shift against independence in several areas. backed Scotland becoming an independent country. Full question: Nicola Sturgeon says the SNP will fight the next General Election as a de facto referendum on independence. Consumer packaged goods (CPG) Eating & drinking. We do not charge or put articles behind a paywall. Redfield and Wilton (5 February) which placed Labour on 50%, the Conservatives on 24%, and the Liberal Democrts on 10%. conservative party Labour Party Latest Westminster voting intention (14-15 Feb)Con: 22% (-2 from 8-9 Feb)Lab: 50% (+3)Lib Dem: 9% (-1)Reform UK: 7% (+1)Green: 6% (=)SNP: 4% (=)https://t.co/WMc2U2wZbs pic.twitter.com/NZ9QZygUG7. YouGov surveyed 1,043 Tory members and found that 60% said they'd vote for Truss, compared to 26% who opted for Sunak, the former chancellor whose resignation helped precipitate Johnson's . By the time that the SNP under Alex Salmond had won an outright majority at Holyrood in 2011, support for Scottish independence had started to nudge back up towards 40%. The voting intention was not weighted by likelihood to vote. All Rights Reserved. All Rights Reserved. To donate or subscribe to The London Economic, click here. Britain Elects. He is the co-founder of poll aggregator Britain Elects. What has happened to the once-great British Airways? The figures show the Conservatives on 28% of the vote (-4 from our previous survey on 21-23 September) to Labour's 45% (+5) - this is the highest Labour lead YouGov has ever recorded. Meanwhile, the latest opinion polls suggest it will be a knife-edge after a recent drop in SNP's approval rating and a small rise in Labour and Conservatives. Should the public's feeling remain largely down. /Which party are you most inclined to support? The Aberdeen youth product is training with the under-21s after falling out-of-favour on Tyneside. The latest YouGov/Times vote intention poll shows the Labour party on 54% of the vote, up nine points on their previous record high with YouGov on Monday. For Women Scotland, conducted by Panelbase, reported in the Times, 18 Dec 2021Data, MurrayBlackburnMackenzie, conducted by Survation, Nov 2021Report I Data. Two new UK-wide opinion polls have added weight to the growing belief that Labour would be close to catching the SNP if a General Election were held anytime soon.. A survey for YouGov gives the SNP a vote share of 36 per cent, with Labour on 33 per cent, the Conservatives on 19 with the Lib Dems just ahead of the Greens on seven and five per cent respectively. YouGov is a global public opinion and data company. 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A report released in 2017, entitled From Indyref1 to Indyref2? All Rights Reserved. In early 2023, the No campaign had already regained an opinion poll lead, doing so at a time that coincided with the discussions about trans gender rights in the Scottish Parliament, and with the UK government subsequently invoking Section 35 of the Scotland Act for the first time in relation to the Gender Recognition Reform Bill. Boris Johnson may have misled Parliament over Partygate, investigating MPs have claimed, Matt Hancocks reaction to his affair with Gina Coladangelo has been revealed in leaked WhatsApp messages, Numerous Russian attacks in eastern Donetsk have been repelled in the past day, Ukraines military has said, The White House has confirmed that Joe Biden had a cancerous skin lesion removed last month, At least 17 people have died in a fire at a fuel depot in Indonesia, Saving Private Ryan actor Tom Sizemore has died aged 61 after a brain aneurysm, Labour were just two points behind the SNP in Scotland before Nicola Sturgeon's shock, Support for Scottish independence at 46% before Nicola Sturgeon resigned poll. The company, based in Drumchapel, has reportedly ceased all trading with its annual results currently overdue by more than two months. In doing so the Lib Dems would defeat both the deputy prime minister, Dominic Raab, and the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt. YouGov polled a representative sample of 1,081 Welsh voters, aged 16+, between February 3 and February 7 for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University. Opinion polling on Scottish independence is continually being carried out by various organisations to gauge public attitudes to independence. YouGov said that among those who voted Conservative in 2019 but now say they plan to vote Labour, Sunak's net favourability score, the percentage who have a 'favourable' opinion minus the . State of the Nation. Stay informed. Does Douglas Alexanders comeback herald the return of Labours Blairites? Something went wrong, please try again later. should not be a referendum on Scottish The result of an IndyRef today 2 March 2023. N.B. Four in ten Scottish voters want Nicola Sturgeon to resign, new poll suggests, Four in 10 Scots think Sturgeon should stand down, poll finds, Nicola Sturgeon opinion poll finds more than three-quarters of Scots think she should go, First Minister of Scotland: Runners and riders. Id 100% bang this poll pic.twitter.com/zW5y7LzwXS. The pollster found Labour on 50 per cent of the vote an increase of three points from their last poll. Analysis pieces written by YouGovs data journalists based on data collected about or relating to Scottish independence. 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Should a general election be held today, this would likely lead to the following composition of the House of Commons: The result of a general election is projected as a Labour victory with the party securing an outright majority of 46 seats. Get the day's top headlines delivered to your inbox. In terms of specific adjustments then made to this analysis, Politics.co.uk has assumed that the Green MP Caroline Lucas would continue to hold her safe seat in Brighton Pavilion, and that Sir Lindsay Hoyle would be returned as Speaker for his constituency of Chorley. Coming into the autumn, the Conservatives appeared to have suffered no adverse polling impacts from either their proposed rise in national insurance, or the autumn fuel shortages. Where does the public really stand on womens rights and proposals to reform the Gender Recognition Act? We use your sign-up to provide content in the ways you've consented to and improve our understanding of you. If you can afford to contribute a small donation to the site it will help us to continue our work in the best interests of the public. We don't have an account for this email address. This Conservative poll lead coincided with the unusual event of a governing party winning a seat from the Opposition, as occurred in the May 2021 Hartlepool by-election. In the aftermath of the 2019 General Election, the Conservative party enjoyed a healthy lead in the opinion polls. Humza Yousaf blasted as he promises to spend taxpayer cash on more independence prospectuses, The Scottish Government health secretary, and front-runner to replace Nicola Sturgeon as First Minister, used his speech in Arbroath to claim that he was going to 'kickstart the independence campaign', Ange Postecoglou hails Reo Hatate Celtic impact as he makes 'another couple of levels' claim. With the Conservatives polling over 50%, this lead briefly surpassed 20% at the beginning of the Covid pandemic in March and April 2020. Data collected at regular intervals about or relating to Voting Intention, tracking changes over time. Sturgeon Still Scotland's Most Popular Politician Despite 12% Margin Against Independence, Lesley Riddoch: A Nordic solution to Scotlands invisibility within the UK, Tories could be reduced to third UK party, shock opinion poll warns, Nicola Sturgeon responds to popularity rating drop amid trans prisoner row. Gender Recognition Act, Tags: Gender Recognition Act, Gender Recognition Reform, Panelbase, poll, survey. Sign up for a FREE NewsNow account and get our email alert of the day's top stories from the UK and around the world. In the space of a month, support for the SNP in the next Scottish parliament election had fallen from 50 per cent to 44 per cent in the constituency vote, and from 40 per cent to 36 per cent in the regional vote and from 43 per cent to 42 per cent for Westminster. According to YouGov's latest poll of Welsh voters, the Tories are set to be left with just two MPs in the country after the next general election. Energy & utilities. You can unsubscribe whenever you want. Poll reveals impact of Nicola Sturgeon's resignation on voting and independence. However after the Scottish National Party (SNP) formed a minority government in Edinburgh, support for Scottish independence started to grow again after 2007. had started to nudge back up towards 40%. % 28 45 9 4 1 3 7 2 Con Lab Lib Dem SNP The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2014 Scottish independence referendum to the present day. Our first Tory members poll since the final two candidates were decided shows Liz Truss with a 24pt . The SNP is on 30 per cent, the Tories on 15 per cent and the Lib Dems on 11, with others on 3 per cent. The figures show the Conservatives on 25% of the vote (+1 from our previous survey on 1-2 November) to Labour's 48% (-2). Forgot your password? But we can't do it without you. Inside Labour's battle to retake Scotland as party warned not to 'count chickens too soon', Public mental health is the true measure of political success. In the case of Wales, Politics.co.uk has drawn on the most recent YouGov poll produced on 27 February. The new offer will see teachers getting a 12.3% increase by April 2023, and it will rise to 14% by 2024. The above analysis of general election polls has been calculated through linear average equation modelling of the latest UK opinion polls of Westminster voting intention. Copyright 2023 YouGov PLC. At the end of the 1970s, support for Scottish independence was polling at little more than 10%. Scotland should remain part of the UK without an elected parliament. What next for Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour left? 2019 thelondoneconomic.com - TLE, International House, 24 Holborn Viaduct, London EC1A 2BN. The latest YouGov poll, of 1,088 voters in Scotland from January 23 to January 26, found that Sturgeons approval rating had slipped into negative territory, from +7 to -4, since October. In this case, Nicola Sturgeon has said that the SNP will treat the next UK General Election as a "de facto" referendum, campaigning on the single issue of independence. Plaid Cymru on 1% Other on 2%. We list the most recent surveys: Wings Over Scotland poll, conducted by Panelbase, reported on 14 Feb 2023: Confirmation Bias for BeginnersFull results, By well over 2 to 1, respondents felt that they were being let down by the people who are supposed to speak for them. The Conservatives meanwhile have dropped to 21% of current vote intention, down seven points. In terms of translating these election poll findings into a projected make up of the current House of Commons, Politics.co.uk has used the Butler method to calculate the current swing between the parties compared to the 2019 General Election. Politics.co.uks current Westminster projections are also drawn through an aggregate extrapolation of the data on election polls. This time 12 months ago, the Conservative party was still just ahead in the polls. The tide may be turning on Nicola Sturgeon and the Nats as a YouGov poll suggests the party could lose 23 seats while another UK survey suggests a collapse to just TEN MPs at the next General Election. Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "If a referendum were held in Scotland on its constitutional future, would you personally prefer Scotland to vote for or against leaving the UK and becoming an independent country??". However in the aftermath of fresh partygate allegations in January 2022, followed by the publication of the Gray report in February 2022, the Conservatives dropped to their lowest polling position for over a quarter of a century, falling to a point last seen during the midst of the Major government back in the 1990s. Crucially for the Union, the SNP would be some distance off a majority share if the election was to be regarded as a 'de facto' referendum on independence, as Nicola Sturgeon has suggested. Our mission is to hold the powerful to account. The leader of the SNP has insisted her party was "not divided". Latest opinion polls news, commentary and analysis, including political and voting intention polls, by polling companies including YouGov, Ipsos MORI and Survation. Scotlands Political Landscape After Nicola Sturgeon? Worst-case scenario could see 120,000 Covid-19 deaths this winter scientists, Watch: Gary Neville slams PM as he rages over brutal UC cut, French border guards warn this will be what it is like after Brexit. Polling for the Welsh parliament election is less extensive than what is available in Scotland. Easy-to-digest video clips. In the run-up to the next Scottish Parliament election, various organisations are conducting opinion polls to gauge voting intentions.Results of such polls are displayed in this list.